Tag: Prediction Markets

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin Among Cryptos Affected by Polymarket TWAP Change

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Hyperliquid, BNB and Dogecoin are among the cryptocurrencies affected by Polymarket’s recent decision to change how it settles certain timed prediction markets, replacing a single final price with a time-weighted average price, or TWAP.

The change covers five-minute, 15-minute, and one-hour up-and-down contracts and comes as cryptocurrency becomes a much larger part of prediction market activity. Digital currency volume across all-or-nothing prediction exchanges reportedly increased significantly, fueled in part by the popularity of short-term contracts that let users speculate on price movements over minutes or hours.

Polymarket is allocating $1 million in liquidity across the affected markets as the new settlement methodology is introduced.

Growing Crypto Markets Bring New Integrity Concerns

Rapid settlement has helped make crypto prediction markets attractive, but it has also raised questions about whether short-term contracts can be influenced by sophisticated traders immediately before expiration.

Research from Stanford University and Singapore Management University recently highlighted those concerns after examining roughly 16,000 five-minute Bitcoin contracts on Polymarket. They identified repeated increases in buying and selling activity on Binance shortly before contracts expired and estimated that approximately $8.2 million moved from retail traders to professional, technology-backed trading platforms during the two months studied.

Five-minute contracts appeared particularly vulnerable, while the researchers found less evidence of similar activity in 15-minute and 60-minute markets. The academics pointed to TWAP as one possible way to make such strategies less effective.

That difference could be significant. A trader attempting to influence a contract in the final seconds of a five-minute window would have less ability to change the settlement outcome if the price is determined using data collected throughout the period.

Betting on a Fairer Crypto Market

Polymarket’s move is therefore more than a technical update. Growing crypto volumes give the operator a stronger reason to reassure retail traders that increasingly popular short-term contracts cannot be easily manipulated by participants with more sophisticated trading tools.

The effectiveness of the new settlement approach will ultimately depend on whether it can reduce the impact of last-second price movements without making the products less attractive to traders. If TWAP delivers that balance, Polymarket’s approach could provide a template for other prediction market operators dealing with the same combination of rapid crypto trading, growing retail participation and concerns over market integrity.

Crypto.com Gains Bigger Role in FanDuel’s US Sports Prediction Push

The relationship between crypto and US gambling is becoming harder to separate, and FanDuel’s latest prediction market move is another example of the two industries converging.

FanDuel is shifting its sports and novelty event contracts to Crypto.com’s prediction market platform, giving the crypto exchange a much larger role in the sportsbook operator’s emerging prediction market business. The move comes just weeks after the companies announced their initial partnership and arrives at an important point in the US sports calendar, with the NFL season approaching.

The strategy also creates an interesting shift in FanDuel’s relationship with CME Group, which will retain the financial side of FanDuel Predicts, while Crypto.com takes over sports-focused contracts.

A New Frontier

Flutter Entertainment revealed the change during its second quarter earnings call on August 5. Outgoing CEO Peter Jackson said FanDuel Predicts would move its sports event contracts to Crypto.com “in coordination with CME,” allowing the operator to bring new products to market more quickly.

That speed could be particularly valuable heading into football season. Sports prediction markets are competing for attention from many of the same customers who traditionally use sportsbooks, while FanDuel already has a huge nationwide audience that can be introduced to event contracts through its existing platform.

The arrangement builds on the companies’ June partnership involving Crypto.com’s OG Prediction Markets. Sports and entertainment contracts will now sit within that relationship, along with combination markets that effectively bring a parlay-style approach to prediction trading. FanDuel is not abandoning CME altogether. Contracts tied to financial markets, including major equity indexes, are expected to remain on CME’s platform.

Why CME and Sports Contracts Are Moving Apart

The split raises a question surrounding the rapidly developing prediction market sector: where do sports event contracts actually fit within the financial markets ecosystem?

CME and FanDuel initially announced their partnership nearly a year ago, focusing heavily on economic and financial contracts. FanDuel’s subsequent expansion into sports created a more complicated dynamic, particularly because sports event contracts have become the most visible and controversial part of the prediction market boom.

CME CEO Terry Duffy recently characterized sports event contracts as gambling and suggested the issue could eventually reach the Supreme Court. CME then announced a separate partnership with FutureSports involving indexes based on athlete and team performance, potentially giving the exchange another route into sports-related derivatives.

FanDuel’s move toward Crypto.com consequently looks significant. It allows the sportsbook to keep its financial market activity tied to CME while placing its sports prediction products with a partner that is already deeply embedded in the crypto and digital asset ecosystem.

Prediction Markets’ Revenue Potential

FanDuel’s ambitions also extend beyond simply selling contracts to bettors. Flutter believes the company can become a major liquidity provider for the prediction market industry, using its existing sports trading expertise to facilitate combination markets across different platforms.

Jackson said FanDuel expects the operation to produce around $50 million in revenue during 2026. That would represent a meaningful opportunity from a business that is still relatively young.

The model could become particularly attractive if sports prediction markets continue gaining traction in the US. FanDuel brings the customer base and sports expertise, while Crypto.com brings a major connection to the cryptocurrency trading world and the infrastructure surrounding digital asset users.

That combination could put FanDuel in a strong position as prediction markets attempt to establish themselves alongside traditional sportsbooks. It also puts greater attention on the unresolved regulatory question. The more sports contracts resemble conventional wagers, the more pressure regulators and courts may face to determine whether they belong under gambling laws, derivatives regulation, or some combination of the two.

Bitcoin 5-Minute Betting Markets Surge on Polymarket

Bitcoin gambling is now entering a faster phase, with ultra-short betting markets turning price speculation into near-instant outcomes. On Polymarket, users are now wagering on where Bitcoin will move within five or 15 minutes, creating a format that closely mirrors high-speed trading.

The concept builds on a broader trend in financial markets, where trading timelines have steadily shortened from months to days and hours. Crypto users are pushing that even further, with contracts that settle in minutes and allow players to immediately place new bets once a round ends.

The Fast Growth Explained

These short-term contracts have quickly become one of the busiest areas on Polymarket. Data from Dune Analytics shows that five-minute Bitcoin markets have generated up to $60 million in daily volume within weeks of launch. That activity significantly exceeds longer-duration crypto prediction markets on the same platform, which often see less than $1 million per day. While still small compared to major exchanges handling tens of billions in trades, the growth highlights strong demand for faster-paced betting formats.

The appeal of these markets lies in constant action and rapid resolution. Instead of waiting for end-of-day results, players can cycle through multiple bets in a short period, tracking price movements in real time. This structure also attracts automated trading systems, with both retail users and professional participants deploying bots to react instantly to price changes. In practice, that means manual bettors are often competing against algorithms operating at high speed.

Market participants note that shorter contracts tend to amplify volatility, creating sharp price swings within narrow timeframes. That dynamic is drawing in users who are comfortable with rapid decision-making and high-risk, high-frequency betting.

Is It Trading, Hedging or Gambling?

Beyond pure speculation, some traders use these short-term markets as a way to hedge positions held elsewhere in crypto. Quick resolution times can reduce the cost and exposure associated with longer-duration trades.

At the same time, the format continues to blur the line between trading and gambling. The combination of instant outcomes, continuous betting cycles, and price-driven results closely aligns with behavior observed in Bitcoin casino sites. Currently, Polymarket sources pricing data from multiple exchanges, with major platforms like Binance playing a key role in shaping market prices. As betting windows shrink, even small timing advantages can influence outcomes.

Global Crypto Prediction Markets May Face Scrutiny as Romania Blacklists Polymarket

Romania’s National Office for Gambling (ONJN) has officially blacklisted Polymarket, one of the world’s largest blockchain-based prediction markets, accusing it of operating as an unlicensed gambling platform during the country’s recent presidential and municipal elections.

Authorities reported that during the elections, crypto-based wagering on Polymarket surged past $600 million, raising red flags about the platform’s compliance with national gambling laws. Despite its blockchain foundation, regulators ruled that Polymarket’s operations squarely fall under Romania’s gambling framework.

Far-Reaching Implications

Romania’s crackdown adds to a growing list of international actions against Polymarket. The United States, France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, and Thailand have all restricted or fined the platform for operating without proper authorization.

In 2022, the U.S. the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket $1.4 million for running unregistered derivatives markets and required it to block American users. Regulators across these regions share a common concern. That is, decentralized prediction markets blur the line between financial trading and gambling, often without sufficient oversight.

Despite these challenges, Polymarket has continued to expand its global footprint and investor appeal. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested $2 billion in Polymarket in mid-2025, which was a strong sign of the growing interest in blockchain-powered betting platforms even amid legal uncertainty.

What Now?

Well, regulators argue that decentralized markets like Polymarket, which allow users to speculate on real-world outcomes using crypto, blur the line between trading and gambling. Authorities warn that unlicensed “counterparty betting” platforms can facilitate money laundering, evade taxation, and lack consumer safeguards that protect players in traditional betting systems.

ONJN officials stressed that technological innovation does not exempt operators from national law. The agency fears that without oversight, blockchain-based prediction markets could disguise gambling as financial speculation, undermining decades of established gaming regulation.

Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to position itself as an “information market” rather than a gambling operator, aiming to re-enter the U.S. market under a regulated framework by late 2025. Still, it could extend beyond that.

As more countries draw lines between crypto trading and online gambling, Polymarket’s fate could shape the future of decentralized prediction markets. If the platform succeeds in achieving regulatory legitimacy, it might pave the way for a new era of compliant blockchain betting. Further growth of these decentralized prediction markets will depend on whether these platforms can bridge the gap between innovation and compliance. This is a balance that will define the next phase of crypto wagering worldwide.